Broadly speaking, the Braves' problem in 2008 was pitching. They didn't hit for power or play stellar defense, but the rotation and bullpen was mostly to blame for what befell them last season. In the rotation, at least, the Braves are improved.

John Smoltz is in Boston, Mike Hampton is in Houston, Tom Glavine probably won't return, and Tim Hudson will miss perhaps all of 2009 after undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery. Stepping into the breach, however, are Lowe, Vazquez, and Kawakami.

Lowe has been remarkably effective over the last four seasons, and playing in front the solid infield defense in Atlanta should help the groundball-inducing right-hander. Vazquez, meanwhile, will benefit from getting out of hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular. As well, he'll be in the non-DH league and pitching against the substantially weaker offenses of the NL. Don't be surprised if the underrated Vazquez gives Atlanta 200-plus innings with a comfortably sub-4.00 ERA.

The import Kawakami is obviously less of a known quantity than the other additions. He throws a fastball, curve, and cutter — all average or better offerings — and his command indicators in Japan's Pacific League were tremendous. So long as he adjusts to the slightly larger baseball used in the States, he should work a lot of innings and manage an ERA close to the league average. Then there's the gifted Jair Jurrjens, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, and Jorge Campillo, who posted a respectable 3.91 ERA last year. The ZiPS projection system tabs Jurrjens for a 3.80 ERA in 2009 and Campillo for an ERA of 4.50 — good numbers for guys who no longer need to front the rotation.

The bullpen, though, figures to be a mess. Mike Gonzalez and Buddy Carlyle should be reasonably effective, but the statuses of Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan, arguably the two best arms in the pen, are uncertain. The remaining Atlanta relievers are roundly uninspiring. Unless Soriano and Moylan come back from injury effectively and soon, the Atlanta pen will likely be even worse than last year. Bettering that relief corps might require some creativity, such as using Charlie Morton, James Parr, or even top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson out of the bullpen.

On offense, contingencies abound. Can Chipper Jones, who's among the best players in baseball when healthy, stay off the disabled list? Can Jeff Francoeur improve (significantly) upon his awful numbers from 2008? Can Casey Kotchman take the next step offensively? Can Brandon Jones hit enough to be a regular corner outfielder at the highest level? Will Jordan Schafer be ready for a first-half call-up? Certainly, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, and Yunel Escobar are tremendous young stars, and Chipper Jones is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer. But if the Braves are to make up the necessary ground in the East, then almost all those questions need to be answered with a "yes." That's not likely. The offense will be in the upper half of the NL in runs scored, but for it to be an elite unit the Braves will need to catch some breaks.

Overall, the Braves have bettered the rotation, but it's probably not going to be enough. Atlanta's passed the Marlins in the standings, but they're looking like an 85-win team. That likely won't be sufficient to overtake the Mets and Phillies. If the offense exceeds expectations and Soriano and Moylan pitch mostly full seasons, the Braves can win the division. But it'll take a union of lucky breaks.

Atlanta Braves News News » Big offseason still not enough for Braves
Big offseason still not enough for Braves
You might not have noticed, but the Atlanta Braves have quietly been one of the winter's most active teams.