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Houston (84-74) remained alive in the playoff race with an 8-6 win over Cincinnati on Thursday.
The Astros went into that contest trailing Milwaukee and the New York Mets by 3 1/2 games for the NL wild card. But the Mets beat the Chicago Cubs 7-6 and the Brewers defeated Pittsburgh 5-1 in 10 innings, meaning Houston will now be mathematically eliminated with a loss or victory by either the Mets or Brewers.
The Mets open a series at home against Florida, and the Brewers welcome the Cubs to Milwaukee.
"Look at the scoreboard, try to win the game, look at the scoreboard, try to win the game, look at the scoreboard again. It's back and forth," Astros center fielder Michael Bourn said. "We're just trying to hope they lose and try to take care of our business."
Houston hasn't been to the postseason since 2005, which also was the last year Atlanta (71-88) made it. The Braves are assured of a fourth-place finish in the NL East, perhaps giving the Astros a better chance to sweep a series against a team with little left to play for.
With Brian Moehler (11-8, 4.61 ERA) taking the mound for Houston, however, a victory is hardly certain. He is 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his last six starts.
The right-hander lasted one inning in his last outing, allowing five runs and five hits as Houston lost 6-4 to Pittsburgh on Saturday. Moehler is 1-5 with a 5.44 ERA in six starts and seven relief appearances against the Braves.
With Moehler struggling, the Astros may need a big game at the plate to pull out a win. Houston had a strong effort Thursday, matching a season high with 16 hits.
Astros second baseman Kazuo Matsui went 3-for-3 with three RBIs and two runs. He's batting .353 (24-for-68) in his last 19 games versus the Braves, and .667 (10-for-15) in his last four contests overall.
The Astros will be facing the Braves' Jorge Campillo (8-7, 3.76) for the first time. The rookie right-hander earned a win in his last outing, giving up two runs and five hits in six innings as Atlanta beat the Mets 4-2 on Saturday.
Campillo went 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA in his previous eight starts.
Campillo, though, has been one of Atlanta's few bright spot this season and Chipper Jones, as usual, has been another. Jones, who finished second in last year's batting race, appears to be in good position to hold off Albert Pujols for this year's title.
The veteran third baseman is batting .365 for a 12-point lead over Pujols.
Atlanta won two of three games at home against Houston from July 4-6 in the teams' first series this season.
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