Bravesworld.com | Atlanta Braves News, braves Scores, Game Recaps & Commentary - <div>Attempting to identify undervalued relievers, as opposed to starters, is a whole different animal when we're talking about fantasy vs. "real life."</div>For instance, I could say that Brian Fuentes is undervalued, because he has a similar ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate to Francisco Rodriguez, but 17 fewer saves. That doesn't do you much good, however, because outside of the shallowest of leagues, both guys are already rostered. We could look at BABIP and list the closers with the highest BABIP. FYI, here they are:1. J.J. Putz - .395 2. Takashi Saito - .365 3. Jose Valverde - .350 4. Trevor Hoffman - .335 5. Eric Gagne - .330 6. Jason Isringhausen - .329 7. Joe Borowski - .324 8. Brian Wilson -.309 9. Jon Papelbon - .302 10. B.J. Ryan - .296What does that tell us really? That Putz has been unlucky? Great, but we know that if he's healthy, he's the closer and not Brandon Morrow. It's interesting seeing Saito on the list; you wonder how much of his BABIP is attributable to the absence of Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones defensively. Where metrics like K/9, BABIP, GB/FB ratio, etc., are valuable in identifying under/overvalued pitchers, what really matters most from a fantasy perspective in terms of relievers is opportunity. Todd Jones isn't a better pitcher than Carlos Marmol (Strat and other sim leaguers know this quite well), but Jones has more opportunity to rack up saves (for now), so he's the more valuable fantasy reliever.As a fantasy owner, managing your bullpen really requires three easy-to-remember steps:1. If you have studs (Papelbon, Nathan, etc.), keep them active and forget about them unless you hear whispers of an injury or they have back-to-back bad outings. Then pay attention. It probably also wouldn't hurt to know the top backups for each guy. Yes, it is worth noting that Scott Linebrink and not Octavio Dotel has been used in the eighth inning most often recently. Should Jenks get hurt, you'll be the most prepared in your league to jump on Linebrink.2. When a new source of saves becomes available, pounce quickly and/or bid aggressively. Sure, we have no idea how many saves that $24 Morrow bid will net you, but it's still worth a gamble. I will say that I tossed $21 in FAAB the way of Henry Owens last year and that didn't work out too well, but at the same time, I also got Salomon Torres for $1 in Tout Wars this year.3. Speculate on potential closers in shaky situations. Really know the set-up for each team's bullpen in the shakier closer situations, and monitor that team's usage in the seventh and eighth innings. Shaky situations: Atlanta, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Texas. Argument could be made for Seattle.Around June and especially in July, I'll add a fourth step - monitor the trade winds. If for example, the Huston Street and Fuentes trade rumors heat up, speculate on Joey Devine and Taylor Buchholz. Also realize that a pitcher like Fuentes in particular has a good shot at going to a team that already has an established closer.That all said, here's a few notes about some set-up men and bullpen situations I'm watching:<h3>American League</h3>George Sherrill surprisingly ranks second in baseball with 22 saves, but with the Orioles going nowhere, one would think they'd sell high on Sherrill next month. He'd have a lot of value to a team like the Yankees, Mets and Tigers should they choose to focus their resources on the bullpen at deadline time. If Sherrill goes, Jim Johnson could get a look as the closer. Johnson has a 1.24 ERA in 36 1/3 innings despite a mediocre 19:15 K:BB. Not the best peripherals on Johnson, but Chad Bradford, Dennis Sarfate and Jamie Walker aren't exactly Fingers, Gossage and Sutter, either.$19 million for Scott Linebrink this winter? Four years? Craziness. The White Sox though aren't complaining, as Linebrink has dialed back the clock to 2005, sitting with a 1.29 ERA and 26:5 K:BB in 28 innings. He's next in line should something happen to Bobby Jenks.Fantasy owners know all about Joel Zumaya and reports of his fastball hitting 100 in a recent rehab stint only make him that much less of a sleeper. Remember, Zumaya had a 1.94 ERA and 10.5 K/9 for the Tigers in 2006 and with Todd Jones up to his usual tricks (3.2 K/9, 9:11 K:BB), the door is open for Zumaya, particularly with the Tigers struggling.Put Edwar Ramirez near the top of your sleeper set-up men lists. He's a far better option than LaTroy Hawkins or Kyle Farnsworth should something happen to Mariano Rivera. If you don't think Ramirez is legit, check out his Triple-A numbers last year: 0.90 ERA, no homers in 40 innings and a 15.5 K/9.Santiago Casilla will be back from his elbow injury this week and Joey Devine late this month or early July, just in time for a month-long battle to be tapped as Street's successor should some team toss enough top prospects Billy Beane's way at the deadline. Personally, I like Devine to succeed Street for a few reasons. First, he was a first-round pick with the pedigree of being a college closer for N.C. State. Second, Beane likes him and reportedly insisted on Devine in the Mark Kotsay deal. Third, Casilla has been great this year (0.93 ERA, 22:4 K:BB in 19 1/3 innings), but he was also great the early part of last year before putting up a 7.04 ERA after the break. Finally, Devine hasn't been too shabby himself - 1.23 ERA, 11.5 K/9). Speculate on both in AL-only leagues, but I'd lean toward Devine.Brandon Morrow had a grand total of 23 1/3 minor league innings under his belt before his promotion to the Mariners last year, so you'll excuse the 7.1 BB/9. The new Mariners regime may be wishing Clayton Kershaw or Tim Lincecum had been the pick at No. 5 in the 2006 draft instead of Morrow, but it does have a legitimate elite closer/set-up man this year before possibly converting Morrow into a starter next year.Troy Percival is back from the DL and immediately slides back into the closer position. With Al Reyes on the DL with another biceps injury, Dan Wheeler is the set-up guy to own in Tampa Bay. If you're a Percival owner, stash Wheeler if you have the roster flexibility.B.J. Ryan posted a 0.86 WHIP two years ago. This year, however, as a result of Tommy John surgery, he's at 1.46. Should Ryan suffer a setback, the Jays may go the committee route with Scott Downs and Jesse Carlson. Carlson is intriguing with his 1.88 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 24 innings.With a 4.50 ERA and 21:14 K:BB, C.J. Wilson is among the shakier closers, and though his job isn't in jeopardy, pay attention to Ron Washington's usage of his set-up men. For now, Eddie Guardado is the closer-in-waiting, but his 2.95 ERA has the potential to blow up at any moment given his .230 BABIP and 4.4 K/9. Joaquin Benoit has talent, but a 5.76 ERA leaves him out of the mix in the near future.<h3>National League</h3>Considered the third-most valuable property coming to the Rockies in the Jason Jennings trade (Willy Taveras and Jason Hirsh being the other two), Taylor Buchholz may now rank first on that revised list. He's been spectacular for the Rockies after entering the year with a career 6.05 ERA as a starter. Moved to the bullpen full-time, Buchholz has a 1.51 ERA, 13 holds and has held hitters to a .168 AVG. A so-so 6.8 K/9 leaves room for an ERA regression, but it's hard to argue too much with what he's done this year in supplanting Manny Corpas as the eighth inning guy and closer-in-waiting. With Brian Fuentes rumored to be on the block this year, Buchholz is one of baseball's more valuable set-up men. He certainly has to be owned in all NL-only and some mixed leagues.I'm not sure who the closer is in Atlanta right now, but Blaine Boyer certainly bears watching. With Manny Acosta 0-3 with two blown saves in his last six appearances, he's certainly on thin ice. We don't know when/if Rafael Soriano will be 100 percent, and with John Smoltz (shoulder) done for the year, Boyer is a nice sleeper. The only real obstacle is the imminent return of Mike Gonzalez from Tommy John surgery. But expecting Gonzalez to slide right back into the late-innings mix without problems isn't a bet I'd make, and the Braves could also find him more valuable as a seventh/eighth inning left-hander. Watch this one closely.Kevin Gregg is another name that will surface in trade talks this year. Matt Lindstrom was tabbed the "closer of the future" in May, but he's now sporting a 4.70 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and 18:14 K:BB. Should Gregg get dealt and Lindstrom not be the choice to replace him, Justin Miller or even Joe Nelson could see a few saves. Neither are worth picking up right now, but keep an eye on the Florida bullpen now and until the deadline.Jonathan Broxton has a 4.28 ERA, but he's really been just as good as ever save two poor outings. Four of Broxton's 13 runs allowed came in just two games. Should something really be wrong with Broxton (doubtful), Cory Wade could be next in line behind Takashi Saito. Eric Gagne (shoulder) is throwing off a mound, though there's no timetable for his return. Interestingly enough, manager Ned Yost has intimated that he's open to keeping Salomon Torres in the closer spot upon Gagne's return. Torres has been great, allowing just one run in his last 11 1/3 innings, but as good as he's been and as bad as Gagne was (6.98 ERA, 2.02 WHIP), don't forget, there are 10 million reasons for Gagne to get another chance at some point.A Lot of Mets fans probably wish Omar Minaya could have fired Billy Wagner instead of Willie Randolph. Wagner has a 2.25 ERA (good), but he also blew three consecutive saves this month (bad). Wagner might be the most hated man in New York right now as the highly-visible face of a franchise in disarray, but he's going to have to do a lot worse to lose his job. Duaner Sanchez has a 4.88 ERA as Wagner's top set-up man, so who's the sleeper in New York? Joe Smith? Runs allowed in each of his last three appearances. Aaron Heilman? 5.71 ERA. Sorry, I'm out of names or answers for the Mets.Matt Capps has blown half of his last six save opportunities, but don't go thinking Damaso Marte is in line for a run at his job. Capps pitching nine of his team's 15 games this month may have something to do with his problems. Marte is going to be a target of many teams next month, but probably not as a closer.Heath Bell got off to a rocky start this year, but since allowing four runs on April 22, Bell has a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings with a 27:8 K:BB. The San Diego native looks to be the team's closer in 2009 should Trevor Hoffman hang 'em up.Jason Isringhausen (hand) is back from the DL, but Ryan Franklin will remain the closer until Izzy's 8.00 ERA takes a dive. Meanwhile, Chris Perez struggled in his outing on Sunday but remains in line to be the closer in 2009.On a non-baseball note, was there ever a finer three days of golf than we saw Saturday through Monday? I found myself glued to the tube at my local gym on Monday and pulling for Rocco, but alas, the seemingly inevitable went down.Next week we'll examine my top 100 starting pitchers, keeper-league style.Article first appeared 6/18/08

Attempting to identify undervalued relievers, as opposed to starters, is a whole different animal when we're talking about fantasy vs. "real life."

For instance, I could say that Brian Fuentes is undervalued, because he has a similar ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate to Francisco Rodriguez, but 17 fewer saves. That doesn't do you much good, however, because outside of the shallowest of leagues, both guys are already rostered. We could look at BABIP and list the closers with the highest BABIP. FYI, here they are:

1. J.J. Putz - .395
2. Takashi Saito - .365
3. Jose Valverde - .350
4. Trevor Hoffman - .335
5. Eric Gagne - .330
6. Jason Isringhausen - .329
7. Joe Borowski - .324
8. Brian Wilson -.309
9. Jon Papelbon - .302
10. B.J. Ryan - .296

What does that tell us really? That Putz has been unlucky? Great, but we know that if he's healthy, he's the closer and not Brandon Morrow. It's interesting seeing Saito on the list; you wonder how much of his BABIP is attributable to the absence of Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones defensively. Where metrics like K/9, BABIP, GB/FB ratio, etc., are valuable in identifying under/overvalued pitchers, what really matters most from a fantasy perspective in terms of relievers is opportunity. Todd Jones isn't a better pitcher than Carlos Marmol (Strat and other sim leaguers know this quite well), but Jones has more opportunity to rack up saves (for now), so he's the more valuable fantasy reliever.

As a fantasy owner, managing your bullpen really requires three easy-to-remember steps:

1. If you have studs (Papelbon, Nathan, etc.), keep them active and forget about them unless you hear whispers of an injury or they have back-to-back bad outings. Then pay attention. It probably also wouldn't hurt to know the top backups for each guy. Yes, it is worth noting that Scott Linebrink and not Octavio Dotel has been used in the eighth inning most often recently. Should Jenks get hurt, you'll be the most prepared in your league to jump on Linebrink.

2. When a new source of saves becomes available, pounce quickly and/or bid aggressively. Sure, we have no idea how many saves that $24 Morrow bid will net you, but it's still worth a gamble. I will say that I tossed $21 in FAAB the way of Henry Owens last year and that didn't work out too well, but at the same time, I also got Salomon Torres for $1 in Tout Wars this year.

3. Speculate on potential closers in shaky situations. Really know the set-up for each team's bullpen in the shakier closer situations, and monitor that team's usage in the seventh and eighth innings. Shaky situations: Atlanta, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Texas. Argument could be made for Seattle.

Around June and especially in July, I'll add a fourth step - monitor the trade winds. If for example, the Huston Street and Fuentes trade rumors heat up, speculate on Joey Devine and Taylor Buchholz. Also realize that a pitcher like Fuentes in particular has a good shot at going to a team that already has an established closer.

That all said, here's a few notes about some set-up men and bullpen situations I'm watching:

American League

George Sherrill surprisingly ranks second in baseball with 22 saves, but with the Orioles going nowhere, one would think they'd sell high on Sherrill next month. He'd have a lot of value to a team like the Yankees, Mets and Tigers should they choose to focus their resources on the bullpen at deadline time. If Sherrill goes, Jim Johnson could get a look as the closer. Johnson has a 1.24 ERA in 36 1/3 innings despite a mediocre 19:15 K:BB. Not the best peripherals on Johnson, but Chad Bradford, Dennis Sarfate and Jamie Walker aren't exactly Fingers, Gossage and Sutter, either.

$19 million for Scott Linebrink this winter? Four years? Craziness. The White Sox though aren't complaining, as Linebrink has dialed back the clock to 2005, sitting with a 1.29 ERA and 26:5 K:BB in 28 innings. He's next in line should something happen to Bobby Jenks.

Fantasy owners know all about Joel Zumaya and reports of his fastball hitting 100 in a recent rehab stint only make him that much less of a sleeper. Remember, Zumaya had a 1.94 ERA and 10.5 K/9 for the Tigers in 2006 and with Todd Jones up to his usual tricks (3.2 K/9, 9:11 K:BB), the door is open for Zumaya, particularly with the Tigers struggling.

Put Edwar Ramirez near the top of your sleeper set-up men lists. He's a far better option than LaTroy Hawkins or Kyle Farnsworth should something happen to Mariano Rivera. If you don't think Ramirez is legit, check out his Triple-A numbers last year: 0.90 ERA, no homers in 40 innings and a 15.5 K/9.

Santiago Casilla will be back from his elbow injury this week and Joey Devine late this month or early July, just in time for a month-long battle to be tapped as Street's successor should some team toss enough top prospects Billy Beane's way at the deadline. Personally, I like Devine to succeed Street for a few reasons. First, he was a first-round pick with the pedigree of being a college closer for N.C. State. Second, Beane likes him and reportedly insisted on Devine in the Mark Kotsay deal. Third, Casilla has been great this year (0.93 ERA, 22:4 K:BB in 19 1/3 innings), but he was also great the early part of last year before putting up a 7.04 ERA after the break. Finally, Devine hasn't been too shabby himself - 1.23 ERA, 11.5 K/9). Speculate on both in AL-only leagues, but I'd lean toward Devine.

Brandon Morrow had a grand total of 23 1/3 minor league innings under his belt before his promotion to the Mariners last year, so you'll excuse the 7.1 BB/9. The new Mariners regime may be wishing Clayton Kershaw or Tim Lincecum had been the pick at No. 5 in the 2006 draft instead of Morrow, but it does have a legitimate elite closer/set-up man this year before possibly converting Morrow into a starter next year.

Troy Percival is back from the DL and immediately slides back into the closer position. With Al Reyes on the DL with another biceps injury, Dan Wheeler is the set-up guy to own in Tampa Bay. If you're a Percival owner, stash Wheeler if you have the roster flexibility.

B.J. Ryan posted a 0.86 WHIP two years ago. This year, however, as a result of Tommy John surgery, he's at 1.46. Should Ryan suffer a setback, the Jays may go the committee route with Scott Downs and Jesse Carlson. Carlson is intriguing with his 1.88 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 24 innings.

With a 4.50 ERA and 21:14 K:BB, C.J. Wilson is among the shakier closers, and though his job isn't in jeopardy, pay attention to Ron Washington's usage of his set-up men. For now, Eddie Guardado is the closer-in-waiting, but his 2.95 ERA has the potential to blow up at any moment given his .230 BABIP and 4.4 K/9. Joaquin Benoit has talent, but a 5.76 ERA leaves him out of the mix in the near future.

National League

Considered the third-most valuable property coming to the Rockies in the Jason Jennings trade (Willy Taveras and Jason Hirsh being the other two), Taylor Buchholz may now rank first on that revised list. He's been spectacular for the Rockies after entering the year with a career 6.05 ERA as a starter. Moved to the bullpen full-time, Buchholz has a 1.51 ERA, 13 holds and has held hitters to a .168 AVG. A so-so 6.8 K/9 leaves room for an ERA regression, but it's hard to argue too much with what he's done this year in supplanting Manny Corpas as the eighth inning guy and closer-in-waiting. With Brian Fuentes rumored to be on the block this year, Buchholz is one of baseball's more valuable set-up men. He certainly has to be owned in all NL-only and some mixed leagues.

I'm not sure who the closer is in Atlanta right now, but Blaine Boyer certainly bears watching. With Manny Acosta 0-3 with two blown saves in his last six appearances, he's certainly on thin ice. We don't know when/if Rafael Soriano will be 100 percent, and with John Smoltz (shoulder) done for the year, Boyer is a nice sleeper. The only real obstacle is the imminent return of Mike Gonzalez from Tommy John surgery. But expecting Gonzalez to slide right back into the late-innings mix without problems isn't a bet I'd make, and the Braves could also find him more valuable as a seventh/eighth inning left-hander. Watch this one closely.

Kevin Gregg is another name that will surface in trade talks this year. Matt Lindstrom was tabbed the "closer of the future" in May, but he's now sporting a 4.70 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and 18:14 K:BB. Should Gregg get dealt and Lindstrom not be the choice to replace him, Justin Miller or even Joe Nelson could see a few saves. Neither are worth picking up right now, but keep an eye on the Florida bullpen now and until the deadline.

Jonathan Broxton has a 4.28 ERA, but he's really been just as good as ever save two poor outings. Four of Broxton's 13 runs allowed came in just two games. Should something really be wrong with Broxton (doubtful), Cory Wade could be next in line behind Takashi Saito.

Eric Gagne (shoulder) is throwing off a mound, though there's no timetable for his return. Interestingly enough, manager Ned Yost has intimated that he's open to keeping Salomon Torres in the closer spot upon Gagne's return. Torres has been great, allowing just one run in his last 11 1/3 innings, but as good as he's been and as bad as Gagne was (6.98 ERA, 2.02 WHIP), don't forget, there are 10 million reasons for Gagne to get another chance at some point.

A Lot of Mets fans probably wish Omar Minaya could have fired Billy Wagner instead of Willie Randolph. Wagner has a 2.25 ERA (good), but he also blew three consecutive saves this month (bad). Wagner might be the most hated man in New York right now as the highly-visible face of a franchise in disarray, but he's going to have to do a lot worse to lose his job. Duaner Sanchez has a 4.88 ERA as Wagner's top set-up man, so who's the sleeper in New York? Joe Smith? Runs allowed in each of his last three appearances. Aaron Heilman? 5.71 ERA. Sorry, I'm out of names or answers for the Mets.

Matt Capps has blown half of his last six save opportunities, but don't go thinking Damaso Marte is in line for a run at his job. Capps pitching nine of his team's 15 games this month may have something to do with his problems. Marte is going to be a target of many teams next month, but probably not as a closer.

Heath Bell got off to a rocky start this year, but since allowing four runs on April 22, Bell has a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings with a 27:8 K:BB. The San Diego native looks to be the team's closer in 2009 should Trevor Hoffman hang 'em up.

Jason Isringhausen (hand) is back from the DL, but Ryan Franklin will remain the closer until Izzy's 8.00 ERA takes a dive. Meanwhile, Chris Perez struggled in his outing on Sunday but remains in line to be the closer in 2009.

On a non-baseball note, was there ever a finer three days of golf than we saw Saturday through Monday? I found myself glued to the tube at my local gym on Monday and pulling for Rocco, but alas, the seemingly inevitable went down.

Next week we'll examine my top 100 starting pitchers, keeper-league style.

Article first appeared 6/18/08