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Mound musings: Top 100 pitching keepers


Mound musings: Top 100 pitching keepers
Is there anything scientific to these rankings? Not really.

I took mine from the Baseball Prospectus database and used these pitchers' PECOTA projections, projected VORP, etc. They're entirely my rankings based on past historical performance, observation, current performance and what I, scouts, GMs, etc., think these pitchers will do going forward.

As this is a keeper list, I'm heavily weighting these rankings toward the last point, and it is, of course, subject to differing opinions, but that's what makes lists of this sort fun to debate. Most of the "you're an idiot" type comments and e-mails come from these types of lists, but that's OK. Hey, I've got thick skin, so fire away.

Just one point, though: disagreement is healthy and expected, but if you're going to argue that Barry Zito should be kept over Kyle Lohse, or that Joba Chamberlain is already better than Josh Beckett, I'd love to hear your reasoning why.

Was someone way too high? Too low? Left out entirely? Some of us will never agree on Old School Rap vs. Jay-Z and Lil' Wayne, Coldplay vs. The Stones, and the timeless debate - the original Star Trek vs. TNG.

Anyway ... below is my top 100 pitching keepers. I've included 50 from each league to appease all you AL/NL-only league folks.

  1. Johan Santana, NYM - Hold on No. 1 is tenuous, but he's the safe option at the top spot.
  2. Felix Hernandez, SEA - 9.2 K/9 last four GS. 7.4 in previous 11. He's taking that next step.
  3. Jake Peavy, SD - Injuries keep him from No. 1 spot, but a healthy Peavy is greater than a healthy Santana.
  4. Josh Beckett, BOS - 200 strikeouts, plays for a winner, over the blisters. He's finally a safe pick.
  5. Brandon Webb, ARI - Injury is a bit concerning considering his workload in recent years.
  6. Scott Kazmir, TB - BB/9 from 3.9 last year to 3.2 this year. Injuries keep him out of top spot.
  7. Tim Lincecum, SF - Put him on a team with a better offense and he might top this list.
  8. John Lackey, LAA - Triceps shouldn't be a long-term concern.
  9. Edinson Volquez, CIN - Overrating him? Underrating? Deserves to start for NL squad next month.
  10. Ben Sheets, MIL - A healthy Sheets might be a top five pitcher in baseball. You willing to roll the dice?
  11. Justin Verlander, DET - ERA trending down big time. Might be AL's top SP the rest of the way.
  12. C.C. Sabathia, CLE - I think he stays in Cleveland. 2.19 ERA since April 16.
  13. Cole Hamels, PHI - A bit riskier than some, but he's a four-category stud when healthy.
  14. Dan Haren, ARI - Adjusting well to NL and to Chase Field (7-1, 2.43 at home, just 1-3, 3.89 away)
  15. James Shields, TB - Underrated no longer. He's arrived.
  16. Roy Halladay, TOR - Seems to have reversed a declining K/9, but lots of mileage on that arm.
  17. Erik Bedard, SEA - Bust with a capital "B" for Seattle. Not ready to write him off quite yet, though.
  18. Chad Billingsley, LAD - Only command issues will prevent his becoming a No. 1 starter.
  19. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS - Health shouldn't be a long-term concern. Should be even better in '09.
  20. Carlos Zambrano, CHC - Have we seen the best of Big Z? Maybe, but he's still got some left.
  21. Ervin Santana, LAA - Results matching up with talent this year now that he's not a dud on the road.
  22. Cliff Lee, CLE - 2008 may be somewhat flukish, but he's still a worthy keeper.
  23. Francisco Liriano, MIN - This looks high, but I can't get 2006 out of my mind.
  24. Matt Cain, SF - Headed toward another 80 BB season, but if he can turn that around …
  25. Yovani Gallardo, MIL - ACL won't be a concern next year. 1.80 ERA in three starts before injury.
  26. Chris Young, SD - 51:30 K:BB and history of back issues drops his stock, but he's a top 10 NL talent.
  27. Rich Harden, OAK - Might top this list if I thought he could stay healthy. So far so good this year.
  28. Aaron Harang, CIN - 3-10? 91:23 K:BB In 106 innings = buying opportunity.
  29. Jon Lester, BOS - Check out his walk rate in June. He's coming into his own.
  30. Joba Chamberlain, NYY - Might be underrating him, but can he go 200-plus innings each year?
  31. Zack Greinke, KC - Psychological issues are in the past. Probably more of a No. 2 than a 1, but that's OK.
  32. Chris Carpenter, STL - Risk involved obviously, but often risk is necessary to win fantasy titles.
  33. Ryan Dempster, CHC - I didn't see this one coming, but his stuff is legit. I'm still a bit wary, though.
  34. Clayton Kershaw, LAD - Could top this list in a year or two, but still command issues to debug.
  35. Max Scherzer, ARI - Another gamble with a huge potential payoff. Surround him with safer options.
  36. Johnny Cueto, CIN - Consistency will come with time, but upside is undeniable.
  37. Shaun Marcum, TOR - Elbow strain is troublesome, but he's for real.
  38. Adam Wainwright, STL - Average K rate keeps him out of the top tier, but you could do far worse.
  39. Manny Parra, MIL - Preseason hype coming to fruition lately. Brewers' second-best starter now.
  40. John Maine, NYM - Another Jim Duquette blunder was "tossing in" Maine in the Kris Benson deal.
  41. Scott Baker, MIN - More than a control artist. Has the potential to be a top 15 AL guy next year.
  42. Roy Oswalt, HOU - Gopher ball has been his down fall, but strikeouts are up and walks are down.
  43. Ian Snell, PIT - Terrible year for Snell, but this ranking is all about upside and he has a bit of that.
  44. Javier Vazquez, CHW - Healthy and reliable. 200 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA the next couple years.
  45. Ted Lilly, CHC - K/9 up to 8.9 and he's been very good since a slow April.
  46. Tim Hudson, ATL - Better in real life than fantasy, but you know what you're getting here.
  47. A.J. Burnett, TOR - Needs a change of scenery, but the stuff is still there. High risk/reward pick.
  48. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY - He'll recover and be a rock for the Yankees next year. Not a big K guy.
  49. Dustin McGowan, TOR - I think he has a few 15-win, 3.60 ERA, 170-strikeout seasons in him.
  50. Jered Weaver, LAA - Can be hittable, but he should have 8-10 years as a solid No. 3 left.
  51. Justin Duchscherer, OAK - 1.99 ERA won't continue, but he's legit if hip holds up.
  52. Clay Buchholz, BOS - Could be a top 10 guy on this list next year given 180-200 innings.
  53. Jair Jurrjens, ATL - No. 3 starter material. Wonder if the Tigers could use a guy like Jurrjens?
  54. Kevin Slowey, MIN - 1.56 HR/9 isn't good, but it's better than last year. He's a control artist.
  55. Jonathan Sanchez, SF - A lefty that strikes out a hitter an inning? I'm investing in that.
  56. Matt Garza, TB - Needs to get that K-rate up, but I like the upside.
  57. Brett Myers, PHI - 3.6 BB/9 is magnified by a whopping 2.1 HR/9. Stock has tumbled quite a bit.
  58. Joe Saunders, LAA - Will get hit hard at times, but as LHP, he'll have a nice career.
  59. Oliver Perez, NYM - Major step back this year, but lefties always get a look from me.
  60. Andrew Miller, FLA - Talent is there for a major step forward next year.
  61. Ricky Nolasco, FLA - 12-strikeout game should have got your attention. Arm problems a red flag.
  62. Jo-Jo Reyes, ATL - Inconsistent, but I'd take him over Chuck James any day.
  63. Scott Olsen, FLA - Has taken some steps back lately, but is young, left-handed and talented.
  64. Homer Bailey, CIN - Stock has fallen like a rock, but he's still just 22. A nice buy low.
  65. David Price, TB - He'll be in the rotation at some point next year, if not before. Huge upside.
  66. Gil Meche, KC - Strikeouts up significantly this year. 3.65 ERA since end of April.
  67. Philip Hughes, NYY - Don't forget about him. Could be a nice buy-low as the upside is still high.
  68. Brad Penny, LAD - No structural damage in the shoulder, so what's wrong? 5.88 ERA.
  69. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL - Shouldn't be any team's No. 1, but he's proven last year wasn't a fluke.
  70. John Danks, CHW - More groundballs and fewer walks has translated to a lower ERA.
  71. Daryl Thompson, CIN - Holding Yankees scoreless in debut a nice way to make one's debut.
  72. Micah Owings, ARI - 6.00 ERA since April, but 7.5 K/9 is impressive enough.
  73. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU - Seems to have turned his road woes around.
  74. Greg Smith, OAK - Now much more than an afterthought in the Haren trade. No. 4 starter upside.
  75. Dana Eveland, OAK - Won't ever front a rotation, but you shouldn't expect him to.
  76. Pedro Martinez, NYM - Will be 37 in October. Probably not much left in the tank for 2009.
  77. Andy Pettitte, NYY - Guessing he has at least another year left.
  78. Vicente Padilla, TEX - Improved strand rate = lower ERA, but expect more like 4.50 than 3.74.
  79. Derek Lowe, LAD - Mr. Consistency is pitching for his next contract. No signs of decline.
  80. Jon Garland, LAA - Four Ks in first five starts, eight in last one. At least we know he'll eat innings.
  81. Aaron Laffey, CLE - 4.1 K/9 indicates 2.96 ERA is flukish, but when in doubt, gamble on the lefties.
  82. Gavin Floyd, CHW - The guy drafted in front of Mark Teixeira has come into his own…finally.
  83. Luke Hochevar, KC - Overrated thanks to No. 1 overall draft pick status, but No. 3 upside.
  84. Brian Bannister, KC - What you see is what you get - 4.50-ish ERA, few strikeouts, lots of smarts.
  85. Ian Kennedy, NYY - Not the next Allie Reynolds by any means, but he's far better than he's shown.
  86. Sean Gallagher, CHC - May stick as No. 5 starter. Future is probably as the same.
  87. Braden Looper, STL - He's been a lifesaver for Tony La Russa, but still not a great fantasy pitcher.
  88. Nick Blackburn, MIN - Lack of Ks limits upside, but should be a solid ERA/WHIP contributor.
  89. Josh Johnson, FLA - Rehab from TJ surgery going well. Keeper leaguers - invest now.
  90. Aaron Cook, COL - His peripherals suggest a 5.57 ERA rather than 3.57.
  91. Anibal Sanchez, FLA - Has the no-hitter, but how does labrum injury affect his fastball?
  92. Hiroki Kuroda, LAD - Certainly no Dice-K, but also no Kaz Ishii/Hideki Irabu.
  93. Jeremy Bonderman, DET - It's a gamble, but he's still young and may have some upside left.
  94. Randy Wolf, SD - Watch where he ends up next year, but at least he's remained healthy.
  95. Kyle Lohse, STL - Great pickup by the Cards considering the price tag. Should stay in STL.
  96. Jesse Litsch, TOR - 1.4 BB/9 limits the damage from his hittable stuff. No. 5 material going forward.
  97. Ryan Tucker, FLA - Not sure he'll be guaranteed a rotation spot next year. 1.41 ERA in Double-A.
  98. Eric Hurley, TEX - Rather roll the dice than gamble on mediocrity (Kevin Millwood).
  99. Joe Blanton, OAK - Billy Beane should have traded him this winter. He's the A's worst starter.
  100. Kevin Millwood, TEX - Probably only keepable at $1, but you should still have better options.

Just missed the cut: Bronson Arroyo, CIN; Paul Maholm, PIT; Greg Reynolds, COL; Jorge De La Rosa, COL; Ubaldo Jimenez, COL; Doug Davis, ARI; Tom Gorzelanny, PIT; Zach Duke, PIT; David Bush, MIL; Jeff Francis, COL; Randy Johnson, ARI (2008 has to be his last year, right?); Greg Maddux, SD (see previous comment); Armando Galarraga, DET; Kyle Davies, KC; Andrew Sonnanstine, TB; Nick Adenhart, LAA; Radhames Liz, BAL; Justin Masterson, BOS; Darrell Rasner, NYY; Daniel Cabrera, BAL; Mark Buehrle, CHW; Garrett Olson, BAL

Not even close: Barry Zito, SF; Rich Hill, CHC

Next week we'll take a look at some pitchers to target in trades over the next month.

Article first appeared 6/25/08


Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: June 25, 2008

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