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Bravesworld.com | Atlanta Braves News, braves Scores, Game Recaps & Commentary - There are many ways to identify undervalued pitchers, but as most dedicated RotoWire subscribers know by now, finding pitchers with good peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB/FB, etc) whose performance (wins, ERA) isn't in line with said peripherals is one of the better ways to identify buying opportunities.
Traditional stats like wins and ERA involve elements (run support, defense, bad luck) that are often out of a pitcher's control. To attempt to identify a few of these buying opportunities, I mined the RotoWire Stats Database and filtered pitchers with at least 40 innings and an ERA of at least 4.30 with a K/9 of 7.5 and above and a BB/9 less than or equal to 3.3.The result? Seven pitchers as follows:
Aaron Harang, Cincinnati - 4.31 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 - Welcome to bizzaro world where Cliff Lee is 10-1 and Harang is 2-9. Harang, sporting a 4.31 ERA, has been a victim of some poor support, and his peripherals scream "buy low." His walk rate is down (1.9 BB/9) and strikeouts are down a little (from 8.5 K/9 to 7.9), but the big problem has been the 14 homers allowed. He admitted he's had some trouble with location recently, and too often it's resulted in flyballs (his 0.77 GB/FB ratio would be lowest mark since 2002), many of which have gone over the outfield wall. Still, I smell a buy-low opportunity here.
Micah Owings, Arizona - 4.50 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 - After going 4-0 in his first four starts of 2008, Owings is 2-4 with a bloated 5.67 ERA since. A reason for optimism: a 36:12 K:BB in 41 post-April innings. I'm not sure this is significant, but Owings has a 2.92 ERA against the NL West and 6.17 vs. the rest of the league. Then again, five of his six starts against NL West teams came in April, so we can't really isolate the root cause of his post-April troubles. Surely part of it is the poor NL West offenses, but then again, Owings did allow six runs to the Nationals in a recent start. I'm still a believer, but I probably sit Owings against the tougher offenses until I see consistent results.
Jo-Jo Reyes, Atlanta - 4.80 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 - Has battled his weight and command the past couple years, but it's coming together for Reyes with a fine 42:16 K:BB in 45 innings. Solid peripherals and a .331 BABIP should lead to better results as the season wears on.
C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland - 4.81 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 - Sabathia owners know about the slow starts, so probably not many buy-low opportunities here.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati - 5.06 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 - Might be the time to buy now that the hype has died down. Could also be too late considering he's allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts.
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs - 5.23 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 - 40 strikeouts in his last six starts (24 2/3 innings). Too late to buy low most likely, as he's 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA since starting 0-3, 9.16.
Jason Bergmann, Washington - 5.23 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 - One bad start against the Giants (no, really) skews his ERA. A stint in the minors seems to have turned things around for Bergmann. I'm buying.
American League Roundup
We knew Cliff Lee's 0.67 ERA wasn't going to last (yeah, huge revelation there), but even in the midst of a poor four-start run (6.56 ERA), he managed to go 3-1. Even more important: he has 21 strikeouts in those 23 1/3 innings. I'm a buyer for Lee's services right now. It was good to see a rebound Monday against the Tigers.
Is Shaun Marcum fantasy's most underappreciated pitcher? Only Scott Kazmir at .238 has allowed a lower opponent OBP than Marcum's .241. More run support would be nice for the 5-3 Marcum, who's allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 13 starts, winning just four of those. As an aside, the Jays are rumored to be interested in dealing a pitcher (A.J. Burnett? Marcum?) for a bat, as they could plug in David Purcey (2.36 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts) in the five-hole.
Jesse Litsch is one of the few guys who's managed to figure out that even if your stuff isn't Kazmir-like, getting the ball over the plate often equates to success. Litsch's 1.4 BB/9 is fifth in baseball. I wouldn't use him against the Yankees, but against everyone else? Sure.
I didn't see the game, but was Dontrelle Willis throwing right-handed Monday? Might be an improvement. The trade with Florida continues to look worse by the day, especially now that Willis has been optioned to High-A Lakeland a la Roy Halladay in 2001. The reeling Tigers have a host of undesirables at Triple-A from which to choose - Eddie Bonine, Chris Lambert and Virgil Vasquez are the favorites. I wonder if they're missing Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens?
So, I trade for Joe Saunders in Tout Wars and he promptly allows eight runs in less than five innings to the Rays after entering the game 9-2 with a 2.65 ERA. Surely no one else has a similar story, right? Considering Saunders' 4.5 K/9, this wasn't a huge surprise, however. He'll take his lumps from time to time.
Looks like the Mariners will be sellers. Look for Erik Bedard and anyone not named Ichiro to be on the block next month. We're guessing the Mariners won't get as much for Bedard as they gave up to get him, but there will be plenty of interest. They Yankees and Tigers especially would have to be considered the frontrunners, though the Tigers' farm system has little to offer beyond Rick Porcello.
I was pretty optimistic on Gil Meche this year, and he found his way on more than one of my fantasy teams. But after a 3.67 ERA last year, Meche is 3-8 with a 5.54 mark in 2008. He did have a very good four-start stretch recently, but then laid an egg against the White Sox last time out. If Meche can cut down on the long balls (1.3 HR/9), he'll be fine, but that's easier said than done. He's not 12-team mixed league material right now.
National League Roundup
I received a question this week on my Pitching Value meter as to why I didn't have Edinson Volquez ahead of Josh Beckett in my rankings. Now mind you, Volquez was No. 3 on my top 100 behind Beckett and C.C. Sabathia. Sounds like I'm not the only one buying into him as a top-10 NL pitcher. I'm a little worried about the 4.8 BB/9, but not only is Volquez getting the job done (9-2, 1.56 ERA), he's doing it with a stratospheric 10.8 K/9 (tops among NL starters with at least 40 innings) and a ground-ball rate that's more than doubled over last year. Safe to say he's arrived.
Randy Johnson climbed to No. 10 on my Mixed League Value Meter this week and with starts against the Pirates and Royals, I was probably being too conservative. A 64:15 K:BB in 58 innings is stellar and Johnson's .343 BABIP bodes well for a drop in his 3.88 ERA. He also has a 27:3 K:BB over his last 19 1/3 innings.
The window has probably closed on any thoughts of buying low on Manny Parra, but try anyway. He's the Brewers' second-best starter. If he can get those walks down (4.6 BB/9), look out.
After seeing Ian Snell strike out nine Diamondbacks in five innings last time out, I remain intrigued. No way a guy with his stuff should have a 5.65 ERA. Somehow right-handed hitters are batting 107 points higher than last year's .245 mark against him, a number I have to think starts trending down unless he's hiding an injury. ...
Cha Seung Baek allowing one run in six innings against the Mets? Oh wait, it was in Petco. Nevermind.
All 12 of Tim Lincecum's starts have been of the "quality start" variety. Each of Lincecum's eight wins have cost the Giants about $17,000. You know you want to know, so Barry Zito's two wins? $2.4 million a pop.
I'm not sure the Marlins give Mark Hendrickson another start. After his latest stinker (five earned in 2 1/3 innings) on Monday, Hendrickson has a 12.71 ERA in his last four starts. Chris Volstad, arguably the team's top pitching prospect still in the minors, would seem to be next in line. Volstad has a 2.96 ERA in 11 Double-A starts, though his 5.9 K/9 seemingly limits his upside.
It's nice to see Zach Duke turn his career around (4.10 ERA), but I'm not buying. A 30:24 K:BB and 3.4 K/9 should be enough to keep Duke owners on edge.
Some think the Nationals got the best college pitcher in the draft last week in Aaron Crow. Crow gives Washington a suddenly enviable stable of pitching prospects, including Ross Detwiler, Jordan Zimmerman and Colin Balester.
The Dodgers are used to having a dominant Brad Penny up until the All-Star break and the equivalent of Josh Fogg thereafter, but could they be getting the opposite this year? Penny is 5-8 with a 5.38 ERA so far in 2008. His walks are up, strikeouts down and his home run rate has doubled. At least Penny is allowing a few more groundballs, but that hasn't prevented him from going 0-6 in his last seven starts. Penny has rebounded a bit this month with back-to-back quality starts, but few pitchers have been as disappointing. I'm somewhat optimistic here considering Penny's velocity is still there, but it's still hard to get over a 47:34 K:BB.
The Cardinals recalled Mitchell Boggs from Triple-A and should he last three starts; those starts are scheduled against the Reds, Phillies and Red Sox. Don't use him in NL-only leagues just yet. Boggs had a 3.28 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts, but 44 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings suggests his road to a permanent rotation spot won't be easy. It's surprising the Cardinals didn't tap their top pitching prospect, Jamie Garcia (2.79 ERA and 79:27 K:BB in 77 2/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A), instead. Garcia is just 21, but he's already reached Triple-A and would bring the Cardinals something they're lacking - a left-handed starter. Look for Garcia up sooner rather than later.
The Marlins might be getting Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) and Josh Johnson (Tommy John surgery) back next month. Put those two with Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller and either Ryan Tucker or Chris Volstad, and the Marlins have the makings of a solid rotation next year. This year, don't expect much from either Sanchez or Johnson, however.
I just picked up Paul Maholm and Josh Banks in my NL-only league. Yeah, that's what happens when your top two pitchers are/were named John Smoltz and Rich Hill. Banks, though, has been outstanding (one run in 23 innings) and Maholm didn't walk a hitter in either of his last two starts, both wins.
Next week we'll take a similar approach ... with relief pitchers.
Article first appeared 6/11/08
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|  | Atlanta Braves NewsNews » Mound musings: Who can you buy low? |
| Mound musings: Who can you buy low? | |
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 There are many ways to identify undervalued pitchers, but as most dedicated RotoWire subscribers know by now, finding pitchers with good peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB/FB, etc) whose performance (wins, ERA) isn't in line with said peripherals is one of the better ways to identify buying opportunities. Traditional stats like wins and ERA involve elements (run support, defense, bad luck) that are often out of a pitcher's control. To attempt to identify a few of these buying opportunities, I mined the RotoWire Stats Database and filtered pitchers with at least 40 innings and an ERA of at least 4.30 with a K/9 of 7.5 and above and a BB/9 less than or equal to 3.3.The result? Seven pitchers as follows: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati - 4.31 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 - Welcome to bizzaro world where Cliff Lee is 10-1 and Harang is 2-9. Harang, sporting a 4.31 ERA, has been a victim of some poor support, and his peripherals scream "buy low." His walk rate is down (1.9 BB/9) and strikeouts are down a little (from 8.5 K/9 to 7.9), but the big problem has been the 14 homers allowed. He admitted he's had some trouble with location recently, and too often it's resulted in flyballs (his 0.77 GB/FB ratio would be lowest mark since 2002), many of which have gone over the outfield wall. Still, I smell a buy-low opportunity here. Micah Owings, Arizona - 4.50 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 - After going 4-0 in his first four starts of 2008, Owings is 2-4 with a bloated 5.67 ERA since. A reason for optimism: a 36:12 K:BB in 41 post-April innings. I'm not sure this is significant, but Owings has a 2.92 ERA against the NL West and 6.17 vs. the rest of the league. Then again, five of his six starts against NL West teams came in April, so we can't really isolate the root cause of his post-April troubles. Surely part of it is the poor NL West offenses, but then again, Owings did allow six runs to the Nationals in a recent start. I'm still a believer, but I probably sit Owings against the tougher offenses until I see consistent results. Jo-Jo Reyes, Atlanta - 4.80 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 - Has battled his weight and command the past couple years, but it's coming together for Reyes with a fine 42:16 K:BB in 45 innings. Solid peripherals and a .331 BABIP should lead to better results as the season wears on. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland - 4.81 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 - Sabathia owners know about the slow starts, so probably not many buy-low opportunities here. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati - 5.06 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 - Might be the time to buy now that the hype has died down. Could also be too late considering he's allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs - 5.23 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 - 40 strikeouts in his last six starts (24 2/3 innings). Too late to buy low most likely, as he's 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA since starting 0-3, 9.16. Jason Bergmann, Washington - 5.23 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 - One bad start against the Giants (no, really) skews his ERA. A stint in the minors seems to have turned things around for Bergmann. I'm buying. American League RoundupWe knew Cliff Lee's 0.67 ERA wasn't going to last (yeah, huge revelation there), but even in the midst of a poor four-start run (6.56 ERA), he managed to go 3-1. Even more important: he has 21 strikeouts in those 23 1/3 innings. I'm a buyer for Lee's services right now. It was good to see a rebound Monday against the Tigers. Is Shaun Marcum fantasy's most underappreciated pitcher? Only Scott Kazmir at .238 has allowed a lower opponent OBP than Marcum's .241. More run support would be nice for the 5-3 Marcum, who's allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 13 starts, winning just four of those. As an aside, the Jays are rumored to be interested in dealing a pitcher (A.J. Burnett? Marcum?) for a bat, as they could plug in David Purcey (2.36 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts) in the five-hole. Jesse Litsch is one of the few guys who's managed to figure out that even if your stuff isn't Kazmir-like, getting the ball over the plate often equates to success. Litsch's 1.4 BB/9 is fifth in baseball. I wouldn't use him against the Yankees, but against everyone else? Sure. I didn't see the game, but was Dontrelle Willis throwing right-handed Monday? Might be an improvement. The trade with Florida continues to look worse by the day, especially now that Willis has been optioned to High-A Lakeland a la Roy Halladay in 2001. The reeling Tigers have a host of undesirables at Triple-A from which to choose - Eddie Bonine, Chris Lambert and Virgil Vasquez are the favorites. I wonder if they're missing Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens? So, I trade for Joe Saunders in Tout Wars and he promptly allows eight runs in less than five innings to the Rays after entering the game 9-2 with a 2.65 ERA. Surely no one else has a similar story, right? Considering Saunders' 4.5 K/9, this wasn't a huge surprise, however. He'll take his lumps from time to time. Looks like the Mariners will be sellers. Look for Erik Bedard and anyone not named Ichiro to be on the block next month. We're guessing the Mariners won't get as much for Bedard as they gave up to get him, but there will be plenty of interest. They Yankees and Tigers especially would have to be considered the frontrunners, though the Tigers' farm system has little to offer beyond Rick Porcello. I was pretty optimistic on Gil Meche this year, and he found his way on more than one of my fantasy teams. But after a 3.67 ERA last year, Meche is 3-8 with a 5.54 mark in 2008. He did have a very good four-start stretch recently, but then laid an egg against the White Sox last time out. If Meche can cut down on the long balls (1.3 HR/9), he'll be fine, but that's easier said than done. He's not 12-team mixed league material right now. National League RoundupI received a question this week on my Pitching Value meter as to why I didn't have Edinson Volquez ahead of Josh Beckett in my rankings. Now mind you, Volquez was No. 3 on my top 100 behind Beckett and C.C. Sabathia. Sounds like I'm not the only one buying into him as a top-10 NL pitcher. I'm a little worried about the 4.8 BB/9, but not only is Volquez getting the job done (9-2, 1.56 ERA), he's doing it with a stratospheric 10.8 K/9 (tops among NL starters with at least 40 innings) and a ground-ball rate that's more than doubled over last year. Safe to say he's arrived. Randy Johnson climbed to No. 10 on my Mixed League Value Meter this week and with starts against the Pirates and Royals, I was probably being too conservative. A 64:15 K:BB in 58 innings is stellar and Johnson's .343 BABIP bodes well for a drop in his 3.88 ERA. He also has a 27:3 K:BB over his last 19 1/3 innings. The window has probably closed on any thoughts of buying low on Manny Parra, but try anyway. He's the Brewers' second-best starter. If he can get those walks down (4.6 BB/9), look out. After seeing Ian Snell strike out nine Diamondbacks in five innings last time out, I remain intrigued. No way a guy with his stuff should have a 5.65 ERA. Somehow right-handed hitters are batting 107 points higher than last year's .245 mark against him, a number I have to think starts trending down unless he's hiding an injury. ... Cha Seung Baek allowing one run in six innings against the Mets? Oh wait, it was in Petco. Nevermind. All 12 of Tim Lincecum's starts have been of the "quality start" variety. Each of Lincecum's eight wins have cost the Giants about $17,000. You know you want to know, so Barry Zito's two wins? $2.4 million a pop. I'm not sure the Marlins give Mark Hendrickson another start. After his latest stinker (five earned in 2 1/3 innings) on Monday, Hendrickson has a 12.71 ERA in his last four starts. Chris Volstad, arguably the team's top pitching prospect still in the minors, would seem to be next in line. Volstad has a 2.96 ERA in 11 Double-A starts, though his 5.9 K/9 seemingly limits his upside. It's nice to see Zach Duke turn his career around (4.10 ERA), but I'm not buying. A 30:24 K:BB and 3.4 K/9 should be enough to keep Duke owners on edge. Some think the Nationals got the best college pitcher in the draft last week in Aaron Crow. Crow gives Washington a suddenly enviable stable of pitching prospects, including Ross Detwiler, Jordan Zimmerman and Colin Balester. The Dodgers are used to having a dominant Brad Penny up until the All-Star break and the equivalent of Josh Fogg thereafter, but could they be getting the opposite this year? Penny is 5-8 with a 5.38 ERA so far in 2008. His walks are up, strikeouts down and his home run rate has doubled. At least Penny is allowing a few more groundballs, but that hasn't prevented him from going 0-6 in his last seven starts. Penny has rebounded a bit this month with back-to-back quality starts, but few pitchers have been as disappointing. I'm somewhat optimistic here considering Penny's velocity is still there, but it's still hard to get over a 47:34 K:BB. The Cardinals recalled Mitchell Boggs from Triple-A and should he last three starts; those starts are scheduled against the Reds, Phillies and Red Sox. Don't use him in NL-only leagues just yet. Boggs had a 3.28 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts, but 44 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings suggests his road to a permanent rotation spot won't be easy. It's surprising the Cardinals didn't tap their top pitching prospect, Jamie Garcia (2.79 ERA and 79:27 K:BB in 77 2/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A), instead. Garcia is just 21, but he's already reached Triple-A and would bring the Cardinals something they're lacking - a left-handed starter. Look for Garcia up sooner rather than later. The Marlins might be getting Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) and Josh Johnson (Tommy John surgery) back next month. Put those two with Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller and either Ryan Tucker or Chris Volstad, and the Marlins have the makings of a solid rotation next year. This year, don't expect much from either Sanchez or Johnson, however. I just picked up Paul Maholm and Josh Banks in my NL-only league. Yeah, that's what happens when your top two pitchers are/were named John Smoltz and Rich Hill. Banks, though, has been outstanding (one run in 23 innings) and Maholm didn't walk a hitter in either of his last two starts, both wins. Next week we'll take a similar approach ... with relief pitchers. Article first appeared 6/11/08 Author:Fox Sports Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com Added: June 12, 2008
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